15-COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF SATELLITE BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS
OF SATELLITE BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES

Andrew H. CHUNG, Michael J. BROWN, Robert D. FASS
Clay M. KOSCHNICK

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Department of Systems Engineering and Management,
Air Force Institute of Technology, Dayton Ohio, United States of America

DOI: 10.64404/JoDRM.2025.2.15

Issue: Vol. 16, Issue 2 (31) / 2025

Abstract

As satellite battery technologies evolve, cost analysts must reassess whether
historical subsystem data remain valid for cost estimating relationships (CERs).
This study examines whether nickel-cadmium (NiCd), nickel-hydrogen (NiH₂), and
lithium-ion (Li-Ion) systems can be commingled for CER development. Using data
from the Unmanned Space Vehicle Cost Model (USCM), we compare normalized
costs and estimate regression models with and without chemistry-specific interaction
terms. The results strongly support excluding NiCd, which exhibits statistically distinct
cost behavior. For NiH₂ and Li-Ion, pooled regressions and coefficient stability tests
suggest commingling is appropriate when estimating NiH2 based systems. However,
interaction terms reveal significant differences in cost behavior between NiH2 and
Li-Ion suggesting that comingling may be inappropriate when estimating Li-Ion
based systems. We conclude that NiCd data should be excluded and recommend
continued caution when commingling NiH₂ and Li-Ion, with periodic reassessment
as more Li-Ion data become available.

Key words:

satellite cost estimating, battery technologies, cost modeling,
CER development, lithium-ion, nickel-hydrogen, USCM, defense acquisition,
technological maturity, generalized additive models

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