ABSTRACT
The March 30, 2024 explosion at Ciangsana Regional Ammunition Warehouse (Gudmurah Kodam Jaya) revealed critical failures in expired ordnance management within densely populated areas. This study integrates chemical stability analysis of TNT/RDX with UN SaferGuard-based spatial risk assessment and JUKLAK04VI/2010 regulatory evaluation. Analysis confirms the explosion resulted from methyl migration in aged TNT forming friction-sensitive crystals after 10+ years tropical storage (27°C, 78%RH), accelerated 2.5x vs temperate conditions. RDX exhibited autocatalytic NOx generation. Spatial analysis using QGIS 3.44.8 reveals 145.1m distance to nearest residences, 83.7% below UN SaferGuard 892m requirement for 65-ton explosive load (Z×∛M principle). Key findings identify three systemic failures: (1) procedural negligence violating 10-year disposal mandate; (2) thermal-induced TNT crystal formation; (3) zoning violations allowing residential encroachment from 2003-2025. Policy recommendations include mandatory environmental monitoring, defense map integration into OSS licensing, and dynamic safety zoning. This incident exemplifies chemical-spatial risk convergence requiring integrated ammunition lifecycle management for urbanizing nations.
